Tuesday, January 02, 2018

A gun in your home increases your risk of death

A 2014 study by the American College of Physicians has "determined" that having a gun in your home increases your risk of violent death.

Well, we're all going to die ... that's a 100% data factum which has not been addressed by this study.

Drum roll, please:

The Accessibility of Firearms and Risk for Suicide and Homicide Victimization Among Household MembersA Systematic Review and Meta-analysis | Annals of Internal Medicine | American College of Physicians:
 Background: Research suggests that access to firearms in the home increases the risk for violent death.
 Purpose: To understand current estimates of the association between firearm availability and suicide or homicide.
Firearm accessibility was determined by survey interviews in most studies;
misclassification of accessibility may have occurred. Heterogeneous populations of varying risks were synthesized to estimate pooled odds of death.
 Conclusion: Access to firearms is associated with risk for completed suicide and being the victim of homicide.
Keep an eye on that balderdash-ish statement about "misclassification", because here's the punch line, where the authors list their data sources:

The "Kellerman Studies" of 1992 and 1993 are listed among their primary sources.

The Atlantic ("The False Promise of Gun Control": March, 1994) provided a long-winded (and generally incomprehensible) explanation of why Kellerman's conclusions ("a gun in your home creates a 43% chance that you will die a violent death", or words to that effect). don't prove the point that he .... and this later study ... were trying to make.

Invester's Hub provides a much more to-the-point explanation of why Kellerman has been debunked.

(There are other sources, but this one hasn't been referred to before here, and it seems to be a more legitimate source than the gun-websites I've linked to previously.)

It has been said that "The Best Way To Tell A Lie Is To Tell The Truth Unconvincingly".

The corollary is equally valid; the best way to tell the truth is to tell the lie unconvincingly.

Any study which cites Kellerman as a reference source is readily identifiable as a lie.

The mere fact that you have a firearm in your home is not a sound basis for the conclusion that you will die a violent death ... unless you are a criminal and have a gun in your home to defend yourself against your rivals in crime, which typifies Kellerman's study subjects.

If you are a law-abiding citizen, the presence of a gun in your home only provided you with a valid means of defense against home-invasion. 

If you use that gun to attack family members, it only proves that you are already the victim of your own flawed personality.

Nothing more.

Oh, and the quote about "Pooled odds of Death"?  That's just bullshit.


Zendo Deb said...

Is the Investors Hub link supposed to be the same as the link to the Atlantic article? They both are the same.

Mark said...

Does proximity to liberals raise one's blood pressure?

Anonymous said...

My wife and I have many guns in our home and are in our mid-70s. So far our doctor thins that for our age we are healthy.